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TechCrunch’s first-quarter tech earnings season prop bets

Here at TechCrunch, we tend to pay close attention to the earnings reports of the big companies. And for good reason! It gives us some insight into major technology trends and some signals that can help us not only predict what products are going to be around in a few years (not mentioning any names), but also directionally what kinds of startups might be successful.


Sometimes these reports can be dull. And sometimes these reports can be quite boring and fall directly in-line with what Wall Street and everyone else expects. We have a couple new entries this quarter like Snap, but since we’re here, we might as well have a little bit of fun. So we’re going to set out some of the odds of some of the fun, stupid and interesting things that might happen this earnings season.



Anything bad happens because it’s 4 A.M.: 3/2

Jack Dorsey says he’s still running both companies: 3/1

Twitter’s ad business shrinks: 2/1

Twitter talks about its great new executive team: 5/1

More Twitter layoffs: 50/1

Jack Dorsey accidentally calls Twitter “Square” and has to apologize: 25/1

Square shares go up after Twitter falls for some reason: 3/2


Apple grows revenue and/or iPhone sales: 5/1

Over/under on “Customer Sat” mentions on the earnings call: 3

Apple breaks out Apple Watch numbers: 100/1

Apple services revenue breaks $9 billion: 10/1

Self-driving car mention: 15/1

Tim Cook says services revenue will be “size of a fortune 100 company” in 2016: 3/1

Someone mentions augmented reality: 15/1

Apple stock rises more than 3%: 7/1

Over/under on number of Qualcomm lawsuit mentions (analyst or otherwise): 3

An Apple executive actually names Qualcomm on the call: 7/1

Greater China revenue shrinks: 4/1

Someone says something about the Apple car: 15/1

Apple TV is called a “hobby”: 25/1


Line on Other Bets loss: $900M

Larry Page shows up to earnings call: 40/1

The Waymo lawsuit is mentioned in some fashion: 20/1

Someone actually mentions Uber by name: 50/1

Alphabet breaks out cloud revenue: 25/1

Alphabet cost-per-click grows: 50/1

Alphabet declares a regular dividend: 3/2

Alphabet shares go up more than 3%: 6/1

Someone mentions currency fluctuations: 7/1


Yahoo discloses another hack: 25/1


Mark Zuckerberg says something about his USA tour: 3/2

Instagram is fully broken out: 100/1

Analysts ask about fake news: 5/1

User growth stalls completely: 50/1

A Facebook executive actually addresses fake news: 15/1

The number of stories posted to Instagram is mentioned: 3/2

Someone says anything about GIFs: 10/1

Facebook stock goes up by 3%: 8/1


Snap somehow discloses some number that’s beating Instagram: 50/1

A Snap executive actually mentions Instagram by name: 75/1

A Snap executive actually answers the inevitable question regarding Instagram Stories DAUs with some clarity: 45/1

Snap actually beats expectations enough to warrant its current revenue multiple: 25/1

Snap announces some new corporate governance method to share control with public investors: haha yeah right

Snap stock goes up by 3%: 4/1

Snap breaks out Spectacles revenue: 10/1


Microsoft discloses last quarter’s Windows Phone sales: 100/1

Microsoft breaks out Surface Studio sales numbers: 75/1

Microsoft breaks out Azure-specific run rate: 25/1

Google Cloud or AWS is actually mentioned: 30/1

Satya Nadella quotes some poetry: 35/1

Microsoft shares go up 3% or more: 9/1


Some ominous mention or signal of additional future layoffs: 5/1


Netflix somehow beats expectations for domestic subscriber growth: 7/1

Netflix original series The 3% is mentioned: 8/1 (great show by the way)

Over/under on 2017’s content spend if mentioned: $6.5 billion

Iron Fist is mentioned by an executive or analyst: 5/1


Amazon actually breaks out Kindle sales numbers in absolute terms: 15/1

Amazon makes money by some accident: 5/1

AWS hits a $12B annual run rate: 8/1

Amazon shares go up at least 3%: 3/1

Media is mentioned for some reason: 4/1

An Amazon executive mentions the number of Alexa skills: 3/2

Over/under on number of Alexa skills if mentioned: 7,000


Box returns to negative free cash flow: 5/1

Over/under on mentions of “cohort analysis” during earnings call: 2

Box stock goes up 3% or more: 6/1


Verizon apologizes for calling it “Oath”: 100/1

TechCrunch shoutout: 200/1 (come on Tim!)


PayPal’s stock goes up 3% or more for some reason: 4/1

PayPal actually has some breakout of Venmo: 5/1 (💪💪💪)


Apple is actually mentioned by name with regards to the pending lawsuit: 15/1

Over/under on number of mentions or questions regarding the Apple lawsuit: 5


Fitbit’s market cap falls below GoPro after its report: 3/2

Over/under on gratuitous vanity metrics mentioned: 7


Tesla is GAAP profitable: 7/1

Tesla actually beats expectations for car shipments: 5/1

Tesla says it will raise more money with a stock sale: 25/1

Discussion concerning the raising of new external capital: 5/1

Over/under for the number of analyst questions regarding SolarCity: 4


Someone says Pandora is “exploring strategic options”: 5/1


Something interesting enough that’s worth mentioning happens: 50/1


GoPro’s stock hits another all-time low: 7/1

Something dumb happens: 3/1


Another minor beat: 3/1

Be sure to check out TechCrunch in the coming weeks for its coverage of earnings for major tech companies.

Alex Wilhelm, editor-in-chief of Crunchbase News, contributed to this post.

Featured Image: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

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